Demographic pressures and political instability in North African countries.

Summary

• Recent instability and revolutionary change in the North African region has highlighted the potential for large flows of migrants into Europe.
• The five Arab countries of North Africa have rapidly growing populations. Egypt, at 84 million, already has a larger population than Germany.
• Their population grew from 45 million in 1950 to 170 million today - an increase of 125 million, or 2 million people a year on average.
• Youth unemployment is very high with three million 15- 24 year olds unemployed (excluding Libya where no figures are available).
• Before the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, all these countries were governed by regimes which were regarded as being repressive, authoritarian and corrupt.

Overview
1   The Arab countries of North Africa have been the source of substantial migration, both illegal and legal, into Europe. Some countries in the region - notably Libya and Morocco – have also been used for transit by migrants originating in the countries south of the Sahara to immigrate clandestinely into Europe. Estimates of the Sub-Saharan population of Libya, mostly illegal, range up to 2 million. So far, the numbers coming to Britain have been limited (Annex A).
2   Since January this year three countries in North Africa - Egypt, Libya and Tunisia -  have experienced acute political unrest and change. Some of the factors behind these developments are unique to each of these countries, but they also share some social and political characteristics with other countries in the region:

• All have very high rates of unemployment among those aged 15 - 24.
• These young people constituted about one fifth of the populations. Their number has been growing very rapidly over recent decades but is expected to decline somewhat over the next twenty years in Algeria Tunisia and Morocco.
• All of these countries to varying degrees have (or had) governments which were authoritarian, politically repressive, and often corrupt.

Demographic pressures

3   Demographic pressures, illustrated in the graph below have been a key factor in driving political and social unrest:
Figure 1

4   Below are summarised some of the consequences of this rapid population increase over the sixty years from 1950 (see also the tables in Annex B).
1950 - 2010

• Between 1950 and 2010 populations of these five countries grew almost  fourfold, from 44 million to almost 170 million in 2010 - an increase of over 125 million which is over 2 million a year.
• In 1950, the total population of these countries was lower than that of the UK; by 2010,  their combined population was almost three times that of the UK
• In 1950, the combined population of these countries, at 44 million was one-third that of those European countries (France, Greece, Italy and Spain) facing them across the Mediterranean. By 2010 their population was 169 million - a gap of only 10 million.
• The biggest increase was in Egypt, where population grew by over 60 million.
• Over the same period, the total number of people aged 15 to 24  in all these countries increased by over 25 million to 34 million - averaging over half a million every year
• Excluding Libya, for which there are no data, numbers of young unemployed in 2005 in the remaining four countries totalled over 3 million.

2010 – 2030

• The projected population growth in these countries over the next 20 year period is 46 million, or almost 2.5 million a year, to a total of 215 million.

Economic and social stability
5   Arab countries in the Middle East are reported by the ILO as having the highest rates of unemployment in the world. Unemployment rates for young people - aged 15 to 24 - are tabulated below for four of these countries:

Country	Unemployment Rate (%) for Young people (15 – 24)
Algeria 2008	24
Egypt 2007	25
Libya	N/A
Morocco 2008	18
Tunisia 2005	31

Source: ILO

Political instability
6   The countries of this region have had governments that are authoritarian, undemocratic and corrupt. Below are results for these countries in two indices that measure democracy and corruption and facilitate comparison between countries (the index dates from 2010 and therefore does not reflect the recent revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia):
Democracy Index

Country	Regime Type	World Ranking (out of 167)
Algeria	Authoritarian	125
Egypt	Authoritarian	138
Libya	Authoritarian	158
Morocco	Authoritarian	116
Tunisia	Authoritarian	146

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
7   Three out of five of these countries are in the bottom quintile of rankings, and the two others are not far removed from it.
Corruption Index

Country	World Ranking (out of 178)
Algeria	105
Egypt	98
Libya	146
Morocco	85
Tunisia	59

Source: Transparency International
8   Whilst comparisons with other countries using this index are more encouraging, only two countries - Morocco and Tunisia - are not in the bottom half of rankings.
31 March, 2011
Annex A

Figure 1  Grants of Asylum from Algeria and Libya between 2000 and 2009. Source: Control of Immigration Statistics 2009.

Figure 2  Grants of settlement from North Africa between 2000 and 2009. Source: Control of Immigration Statistics 2009.
Annex B
Table 1: Total Population

Country	1950	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030
Algeria	8753	18811	25283	30506	35423	40630	44726
Egypt	21514	44433	57785	70174	84474	98638	110907
Libya	1029	3063	4365	5346	6546	7699	8519
Morocco	8953	19567	24805	28827	32381	36200	39259
Tunisia	3530	6457	8215	9452	10374	11366	12127
TOTAL	43779	92331	120453	144305	169198	194533	215538

Table 2: Percentage of Population Aged  15 - 24

Country	1950	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030
Algeria	18.6	19.3	20.4	22.6	20.5	14.8	15.5
Egypt	19	19.7	18.4	20.9	20.2	17.4	17.2
Libya	18.5	18.2	21.1	24.3	17.3	16.3	17
Morocco	19.2	20.7	20.2	21.1	19.7	16	15.6
Tunisia	18.2	21.1	20	20.7	19.3	13.7	13.3

Table 3: Numbers of People Aged 15 - 24

Country	1950	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030
Algeria	1628	3631	5158	6894	7262	6013	6933
Egypt	4088	8753	10632	14666	17064	17163	19076
Libya	190	557	921	1299	1132	1255	1448
Morocco	1719	4050	5011	6082	6379	5792	6124
Tunisia	642	1362	1643	1957	2002	1557	1613
TOTAL	8268	18354	23365	30899	33839	31780	35194

Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database
Note: Data for 2010 – 2030 is projected using ‘medium variant’assumption.
Table 4: Numbers of Young - 15 to 24 - Unemployed (‘000)

Country	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Algeria	1081.4	N/A	996	762.3	699.1	536.4	596.6	528
Egypt	1385.7	1152.7	1476.9	1521.1	1762.5	1632.6	1342.7
Morocco	498.7	461.7	466	425.4	420.9	414.9	428.6	449.4
Tunisia	202.8	208.3	206.2	193.6	205.9	N/A	N/A	N/A
TOTAL	3168.6	N/A	3145.1	2902.4	3088.4	N/A	N/A	N/A

Source: ILO
Note: There are no data for Libya